Stock Portfolio Summer Update

Hi everyone.  I know it's been several months of no updates.  The stock market had a crazy pull off around March and many stocks' price were severly beaten down.  However, looking to the long term, technology sector will still boom due to the fact that it did in fact changed our lifestyle.  We pretty much "google" everything for advice.  Whether it be checking if an item's price is competitive before purchasing, researching how to fix your house, finding guitar tabs, or just watching youtube videos for fun, you can access them everywhere.  Mobile computing and communication technolgies advancements will enable us to do many of the "googling" more effortlessly and more afordably.  The trend I see in technology that will be hot for a while is in four main sectors:  Clean Tech, Mobile Computing, Internet hardware and software(security, high performance hardware), and Mobile and web applications for nich markets.  Going with any of those 4 sectors, if researched and filtered carefully, you will most likely gain from your investments.

Enough said, let's check our porfolio performance for HDA's Portfolio since I still want to show how we did so far with our long term holds:

Symbol	Company Name	Buy Price($)	Current Price($)	% gain
INVN	Invensense	11.87	21.69	104.7
ADNC	Audience, Inc.	16.28	10.67	-48.1
AMBA	Ambarella, Inc.	16.79	29.46	69.3
SYNA	Synaptics, Inc.	38.77	57.03	114.8
HIMX	Himax Tech., Inc.	6.48	14.41	7.4
			Average % gain	49.6

As you can see, dispite of plenty of geopolitical bad news, our progress for longer term (1 year+) gain was not so shabby - average at 49.6%.   INVN is still my top holds since it has potential to grow for wearables and other mobile devices. Also, because I hold alot more INVN and trade ADNC in small amount (~1% of portfolio) on and off, the gain was much more than the merely 49.6% mentioned above. Therefore, I recommend buying INVN for long term.  As for AMBA, SYNA, HIMX, you could choose to sell for short term or hold for long term, depending on how well the google glass and smart phone sector is doing and if they remain as market leader in their specialty.  As for ADNC, if you have not bought it, buy it around 6-7 dollars range if you can get it, you will not regret it.


Have fun trading.

Our Portfoilo Progress Report

It's been awhile since I last updated.  I've been busy with school and did not get a chance to update my portfolio recommendations.  Although I haven't been updating my list via posts, I had been changing the portfolio widget on the right side of this website page (HDA's Portfolio).  Last year was a great year for all investors so my gains was nothing to be proud of.  However, I still want to show how we did so far with our long term holds.

Here's the break down:

Symbol	Company Name	Buy Price($)	Current Price($)	% gain
INVN	Invensense	11.87	21.69	82.7
ADNC	Audience, Inc.	16.28	10.67	-34.5
AMBA	Ambarella, Inc.	16.79	29.46	75.5
SYNA	Synaptics, Inc.	38.77	57.03	47.1
HIMX	Himax Tech., Inc.	6.48	14.41	122.4
			Average % gain	58.6

As you can see, our progress for midterm (half to one year) gain was not so shabby - average at 58.6%.  I still believe these companies will hold up well in the current market.  This only miss was ADNC, which didn't do as well as expected and did not go through M&A.  However, I believe ADNC will pick up in the future.  INVN is still my top holds since it has a big growth potential going forward to 2015 and on.  Therefore, I recommend buying INVN for long term.  As for AMBA, SYNA, HIMX, you could choose to sell for short term or hold for long term, depending on how well the google glass and smart phone sector is doing and if they remain as market leader in their specialty.

Have fun trading this year.

Updates to my portfolio and watchlists

Today I exited all of my YHOO positions and added a few new stocks.  I will keep YHOO in my stock watch list.  I did not keep YHOO in my portfolio because currently it's only fairly valued, and I found more interesting stocks to hold than YHOO at the moment.  I added the following stocks and will share my 2 cents on this move:  MX, MXIM, and ANV.

• MagnaChip Semiconductor Corp (MX) is a small CAP company with low P/E, low short rate, and a potential upside of  ~20% within 1 year.  It has a relatively steady earning and has a good potential to grow bigger in the long run.  
• Maxim Integrated Products(MXIM) is a well known semiconductor company with good balance sheet and lots of good engineering talents.  Most importantly, the company is doing well recently and it shows on its stock price.  The earning is good, the P/E is fair in my opinion, and the potential upside is in the ball park of  ~ 18% within 1 year.
• Allied Nevada Gold Corp(ANV) is a small CAP gold mining company with huge upside (~100%).  However, due to my lack of knowledge of the gold industry, I only entered a small position in this stock.  This is more of a speculative play by me with short/mid term trading in mind (up to 1 year term).  I compared this company with two other gold mining companies (AEM and NGD) with similar valuations and ended up chosing ANV for its relatively fair P/E, fair fundamentals, and huge upside potential.  Note that this stock could go down due to the volatile nature of this stock so bear this in mind.  I will write an update when I decide to exit my position in this stock.  I think I would do something similar to a trailing stop or a stop loss of 5-10%.

As you can see, I am fairly confident in MX and MXIM, not so much in ANV.  MX and MXIM are the two stocks to buy now if you want to trade in the tech/semiconductor sector.

Updates on INVN and AMBA
-Good news for Invensense (INVN) regarding to their recent deals with Google (http://www.theflyonthewall.com/permalinks/entry.php/INVN;GOOGid1841885/INVN;GOOG-InvenSense-advances-after-analyst-reports-Google-deal)

- Ambarella (AMBA) will have Q1 FY2014 Earnings Conference Call today (June 4th, 2013).  If interested, webcase is available at http://investor.ambarella.com/index.cfm.  

- More AMBA news (earning jump, EPS beat, and revenue increases):

1. http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2013/06/04/ambarella-jumps-9-fyq1-revenue-eps-beat/?mod=yahoobarrons
2. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ambarella-inc-announces-first-quarter-200500136.html

Updates on ADNC
-Good news.  Audience partners up with China Mobile (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/audience-partners-china-mobile-redefine-201855520.html)

Updates on ANV
-Long term gold prices is still more toward the downside so I've decided to exit this posititon for a loss.


Note1:  One should never buy a stock without doing research yourself and never invest more money than you are willing to lose.  Everyone's strategy is different and there are no right or wrong answers to stock investing, it's about risk tolerance and your current finacial situation - how conservative you are, how much cash you have, and how much you wanted to earn each year.

Note2: Ones strategy could evolve or change through time.  So far I've transitioned from conservative to more aggresive stocks and so far I've been doing well.  This is due to the fact that the overall stock market trend is up the past year and for aggresive stocks, although more risky, the reward is much larger.

Note3:  Another thing is to never invest too much money in a field you are not very familiar of.  For example, if you just started learning about the semiconductor market, you should not invest too much of your money in that field.  I invested in many technology stocks because I am familiar with this market and know many people who works in the tech industry.  For example, Audience(ADNC) is not a very well known company since it's relatively new, but ever since my ex-collegue started working there, she had nothing but good things to say about the company.  At the time, its share price price is only 6 dollars and in one year it's more than doubled.  So I did the research, had some luck finding this small company, and profitted a little from the stock, but most importantly, I am confident about how the company will do because I am very up to date about the chip industry.

Note4: Stock trading is not for everyone but I hope I can help some people out with what I know from investing in stocks for several years, eventhough my knowledge is still fairly limited compared to the GURUs out there.  I think stock trading is fun and exciting.  If you feel the same, feel free to to join the ride :)

Note5: Never believe in any good news or bad news right away, but you should always be prepared for bad news.

Note6:  It is wise to take some short term gains from time to time and buy back the stocks in your portfolio when the market is taking a breather or have a correction.

New Good Buy Alert - added ADNC

Earlier this week I posted update on my watchlist and my good bet list.  I talked about Audience(ADNC) could potentially become one of those dark horses in tech stocks, but was still trying to wait for better pricing as the current prices look about fair value.  However, this is only assuming that there are no good catalyst for the stock.  Yesterday's after hour trading made me curious as to why it's still going up when it seems to be fairly priced.  After some research and I've decided to put this on my good bet list for now.  Here are the 3 main reasons:

1. Signs of heavy insider buying.  Potential buyout?
2. More upsides than downside due to good fundamentals
3. More than usual volume and the stock is trending up

Another factor is that I know some people who worked there who used to be my collegues.  From what I've heard, the company seems to be very enthusiastic about their new products and everyone is working hard.  This is yet another sign of good future prospect.  If you want to invest in a company this small, how much potential a company has is very important.  Ofcourse, management is very important, but we should also look at people who works there.  Are they very optimistic and enthusiatic at what they are working on?  Are they willing to take the challenge and make products that are much better than their competition?  Are there good talents?  It seems to me that answers to all these questions will be reflected on the stock price and I am willing to bet that it's more toward the upside.  If this optimism in the company kept on going, it would also influece the likelyhood that a big company who are looking at acquiring Audiance's to make the deal.

The main bet is that it will get acquired by big company at the much higher valuation.  This seems like a more likely scenario due to Audience's CFO's massive insider buy even at a relatively high stock price.  There's only one major reason why people (especially executives) buy a stock(especially their company's), and you know what it is.

There are many ways to play this more safely by hedging or having a stoploss just in case something went wrong with the company.  As long as you are carefull with each trade.  I don't see a reason not to buy this stock at the current price for it has a potential of going 25-50% sooner or later (if it will happen, it will).

Now, have fun with trading and good luck!!!   :)

Update: JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference Call May 14, 2013 - http://seekingalpha.com/article/1435551-audience-s-ceo-presents-at-jpmorgan-global-technology-media-and-telecom-conference-transcript?source=yahoo

Updates on Stock List

Sell in May and go away. This is not just a saying. It's accurate up to more than 60-70% of the time. The stock markets hasn't been doing all that well this first half of the year. It wasn't very bad.  It's just that it wasn't very spectacular. So I am going to talk about the stocks that I am watching and the stocks I am betting on.

 Stocks I am Watching

 AAPL GOOG TSLA ADNC AMZN GOOG DDD WMC AGNC

 Most of the stocks I am watching relates to technology and are fairly well known by the industry. TSLA(Tesla Motors) is the leader of electric cars in terms of technology standpoint and could possibly be the next Apple, however, it's balance sheet is still horrible and the price is high for a company that's in debt. DDD(3D Systems) is very expensive right now but I do think 3D printing technology has a future. Google (GOOG), Amazon(AMZN), and Apple(AAPL) are fairly well known and I feel they are fairly price now, however I might snatch some shares if price looked right in the future.  ADNC (Audience) is one of those dark horses I would say that could also be a good bet but it's currently fairly priced.  It used to look really great under 10 dollars but now it's been trading 14-15 dollar range.  If some how market behaves irrationally and oversell it, it could be a good opportunity to grab some of these little gems.   Last but not least, I am into low P/E and high dividend stocks, which AGNC(American Capital Mortgage Investment) and WMC(Western Asset Mortgage) provides. AGNC just reported a disapointing quarter and slid about 7% on Friday, it if slide more this week I might snatch some for short term gain or receiving dividends . As for WMC, it is one of those small cap MREITs that I feel is doing ok but now the price point is just fair, not a good time to buy yet.

Stocks I am Betting on

INVN MTGE

 MTGE is also one of those small cap MREITS that are doing ok but not great. However, it's still one of the most stable stocks that I've owned so far that provide a huge dividend.  The price of MTGE should be in the ballpark of 26-27 dollar range but now it's been sitting at 24-25 dollar range which I believe is cheap for what the stock is worth. It is a grade B stock on Navellier's portfolio grader and was rated well on the street. It is a no brainer buy at the moment. Ofcourse there are much more to MREITs that people have doubts with but I feel that goes with most stocks out there. We cannot forsee the future, but we know at the present, the price is quite good and if we bet the wrong way, we can always stop loss and or wait to receive the 14% dividend.

INVN is the one I am most excited about and is the one that I had been holding, buying, and selling for a while now ever since 2012. It's what I called a rollercoaster stock which could make people dizzy  but some what predictable. It's a low volume small cap stock and the company is the leader in motion sensors. It's major competitor ST Microelectronics had been losing the design wins to them. The chips are in many mobile phones now, primarily in android phones (i.e. Samsun Galaxy S4). But rumors has it that Apple will also start to use their chips in the future. At the moment the price of the stock should be around 13.5-14.5 dollar range if they are just doing about the same. However, the fact that it is possible they can be bought up by bigger companies and that they could partner up with Apple makes this a very good bet at this time. Short term and long term trend are favoring the upside.  All in all, Invensense as a company has a competitive edge against competitors for it's low profile MEMs technology and it's decent fundamentals (no debt and growth is great year over year).

Update:  Add GLW(Corning) and AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines) to the stockwatch list.  Corning has very broad range of technology and is the leader in the glass sector for mobile devices and is used in many mobile devices.  Agnico Eagle Mine could be a bargain since it could be oversold; however, I do not know enough about the gold market right now to make the bet yet.

Haven't had a post in a while but during these couple of months I've changed the looks and feel of this site and added a stock watch widget on the right panel. I also got rid of many of my stock holdings these several months because I found that although having bigger stock portfolio is safer, smaller but even more carefully chosen stocks will improve the gain percentages. I am back and will start doing more frequent updates since I am finally done with my masters degree. Work's been busy as well but I think I can still manage. Ken

My Portfolio List

Earning releases for my recommended stocks are updated on the calender. You can see it from Investments and Personal Finance -> Stock Watch List (Earning Release).

Below are stocks that I currently own.  Buy at your own risk but I have done serious research before buying.  I will let you guys know if I plan to sell and of the stocks below.  My portfolio is currently B ranked based on Navilier's Portfolio Grade (free for us to use, see recommended sites section) and is earning a little more than  S&P at the moment.

  Symbol AAPL, ABV, ARMH, BAK, BCPC, BLL, BT, BWA, CF, COST, CPL, EW, GLW, GTAT, IBM, KO, MCRL, MSFT, NOV, NXPI, PAY, PM, ROST, SLW, STV, TDC, THI, TIBX,TSU, VSCP, VZ

Stock Pick Performance

On Feb 08 this year I recommended 2 stocks.  Lets look at the performance of those two stocks FOSL(Fossil, Inc.) and SNDK(Sandisk Corp.)

Up to this point, our stock pick has a 50% hit rate, but average gain is about 27%, which is not bad for 5 months performance.  Both stocks are fairly conservative stock with decent balance sheet, therefore, I would expect in the long term, the gain will be much higher.  Stay tuned for more stock picks and performance report.

Market Days Ahead, Joys or Woes?

Hi, this is Tom and I will be helping Ken with investment and personal finance tips, news, and deals section.

As evident in the stock markets the past one week, investors have reacted strongly, in a negative way, to the global unrest in Egypt, bolstered by a handful of disappointing earnings reports, e.g. F5 Networks, Amazon Inc., Ford Motors.

However, I believe that the market will continue in an upward trend as we near the beginning of February, though a few bumps along the ride are expected, as the Egypt situation eases and a whole new slate of earnings reports are unveiled.  If you have any shares in hand and trying to decide whether to sell then you should hold off a bit and probably even buy more of the stocks that fell due to over reacting.  We'll see what happens next week and we can probably take the chance to pick up some more undervalued stocks.

Stay tuned for stock tips and advice for next week.